The Norm Chronicles

Stories and Numbers About Danger and Death

Author: Michael Blastland,David Spiegelhalter

Publisher: Basic Books

ISBN: 0465085695

Category: Science

Page: 384

View: 1936

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A statistician and a journalist reveal the real story behind the statistics on risk, chance, and choice

The Norm Chronicles

Stories and numbers about danger

Author: David Spiegelhalter,Michael Blastland

Publisher: Profile Books

ISBN: 1847658296

Category: Science

Page: 328

View: 3768

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Meet Norm. He's 31, 5'9", just over 13 stone, and works a 39 hour week. He likes a drink, doesn't do enough exercise and occasionally treats himself to a bar of chocolate (milk). He's a pretty average kind of guy. In fact, he is the average guy in this clever and unusual take on statistical risk, chance, and how these two factors affect our everyday choices. Watch as Norm (who, like all average specimens, feels himself to be uniquely special), and his friends careful Prudence and reckless Kelvin, turns to statistics to help him in life's endless series of choices - should I fly or take the train? Have a baby? Another drink? Or another sausage? Do a charity skydive or get a lift on a motorbike? Because chance and risk aren't just about numbers - it's about what we believe, who we trust and how we feel about the world around us. From a world expert in risk and the bestselling author of The Tiger That Isn't (and creator of BBC Radio 4's More or Less), this is a commonsense (and wildly entertaining) guide to personal risk and decoding the statistics that represent it.

The Norm Chronicles

Stories and Numbers About Danger and Death

Author: Michael Blastland,David Spiegelhalter

Publisher: Hachette UK

ISBN: 0465085695

Category: Science

Page: 384

View: 5098

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A statistician and a journalist reveal the real story behind the statistics on risk, chance, and choice

The Tiger That Isn't

Seeing Through a World of Numbers

Author: Andrew Dilnot,Michael Blastland

Publisher: Profile Books

ISBN: 1847650791

Category: Mathematics

Page: 192

View: 5233

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Mathematics scares and depresses most of us, but politicians, journalists and everyone in power use numbers all the time to bamboozle us. Most maths is really simple - as easy as 2+2 in fact. Better still it can be understood without any jargon, any formulas - and in fact not even many numbers. Most of it is commonsense, and by using a few really simple principles one can quickly see when maths, statistics and numbers are being abused to play tricks - or create policies - which can waste millions of pounds. It is liberating to understand when numbers are telling the truth or being used to lie, whether it is health scares, the costs of government policies, the supposed risks of certain activities or the real burden of taxes.

Sex by Numbers

Author: David Spiegelhalter

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: 9781781253298

Category: Social Science

Page: 368

View: 6934

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Whatever society we live in, and however open-minded we like to think we are, when it comes to our sex lives we all like to keep a few secrets. But this makes the jobs of sexologists - professionals who study sexual behaviour - pretty difficult.Luckily, David Spiegelhalter, Professor of Risk at Cambridge University, is here to unravel the web of exaggerations, misdirections and downright lies that surround sex in modern society. Drawing on the Natsal survey, the widest survey of sexual behaviour since the Kinsey Report, he answers crucial questions such as what are we all doing? How often? And how has it changed?Accompanying a major Wellcome exhibition on the same subject, Sex by Numbers is an informed and entertaining look at the most enduring of human obsessions, from one-night stands to the seven-year itch.

Dicing with Death

Chance, Risk and Health

Author: Stephen Senn

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 1139438999

Category: Mathematics

Page: N.A

View: 7600

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If you think that statistics has nothing to say about what you do or how you could do it better, then you are either wrong or in need of a more interesting job. Stephen Senn explains here how statistics determines many decisions about medical care, from allocating resources for health, to determining which drugs to license, to cause-and-effect in relation to disease. He tackles big themes: clinical trials and the development of medicines, life tables, vaccines and their risks or lack of them, smoking and lung cancer and even the power of prayer. He entertains with puzzles and paradoxes and covers the lives of famous statistical pioneers. By the end of the book the reader will see how reasoning with probability is essential to making rational decisions in medicine, and how and when it can guide us when faced with choices that impact on our health and even life.

Risk: A Very Short Introduction

Author: Baruch Fischhoff,John Kadvany

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 0199576203

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 162

View: 7160

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Risks are everywhere. They come from many sources, including crime, diseases, accidents, terror, climate change, finance, and intimacy. They arise from our own acts and they are imposed on us. In this Very Short Introduction Fischhoff and Kadvany draw on both the sciences and humanities to show what all risks have in common. Do we care about losing money, health, reputation, or peace of mind? How much do we care about things happening now or in the future? To ourselves or to others? All risks require thinking hard about what matters to us before we make decisions about them based on past experience, scientific knowledge, and future uncertainties. Using conceptual frameworks such as decision theory and behavioural decision research, we examine the science and practice of creating measures of risk and look at how scientists apply probability by combining historical records, scientific theories, and expert judgement. Showing what science has learned about how people deal with risks, and applying these to diverse everyday examples, the authors demonstrate how we move from understanding a risk to making a choice in everyday life.

The Cabinet of Wonders

The Kronos Chronicles:

Author: Marie Rutkoski

Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux (BYR)

ISBN: 9781429930000

Category: Juvenile Fiction

Page: 272

View: 2744

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Marie Rutkoski's startling debut novel, the first book in the Kronos Chronicles, about the risks we take to protect those we love, brims with magic, political intrigue, and heroism. Petra Kronos has a simple, happy life. But it's never been ordinary. She has a pet tin spider named Astrophil who likes to hide in her snarled hair and give her advice. Her best friend can trap lightning inside a glass sphere. Petra also has a father in faraway Prague who is able to move metal with his mind. He has been commissioned by the prince of Bohemia to build the world's finest astronomical clock. Petra's life is forever changed when, one day, her father returns home – blind. The prince has stolen his eyes, enchanted them, and now wears them. But why? Petra doesn't know, but she knows this: she will go to Prague, sneak into Salamander Castle, and steal her father's eyes back. Joining forces with Neel, whose fingers extend into invisible ghosts that pick locks and pockets, Petra finds that many people in the castle are not what they seem, and that her father's clock has powers capable of destroying their world. The Cabinet of Wonders is a 2009 Bank Street - Best Children's Book of the Year.

Dragons of the Valley

A Novel

Author: Donita K. Paul

Publisher: WaterBrook

ISBN: 030745911X

Category: Young Adult Fiction

Page: 400

View: 7468

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War threatens the peaceful land of Chiril… can one painter-turned-reluctant-swordsman really help? With an invasion of her country imminent, Tipper Schope is drawn into a mission to keep three important statues from falling into the enemy’s clutches. Her friend, the artist Bealomondore, helps her execute the plan, and along the way he learns to brandish a sword rather than a paintbrush. As odd disappearances and a rash of volatile behavior sweep Chiril, no one is safe. A terrible danger has made his vicious presence known: The Grawl, a hunter unlike any creature encountered before. To restore their country, Tipper, Bealomondore, and their party must hide the statues in the Valley of the Dragons and find a way to defeat the invading army. When it falls to the artistic Bealomondore to wield his sword as powerfully and naturally as a paintbrush, will he answer Wulder’s call for a champion? From the Trade Paperback edition.

Why We Disagree about Climate Change

Understanding Controversy, Inaction and Opportunity

Author: Mike Hulme

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 1107268893

Category: Business & Economics

Page: N.A

View: 725

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Climate change is not 'a problem' waiting for 'a solution'. It is an environmental, cultural and political phenomenon which is re-shaping the way we think about ourselves, our societies and humanity's place on Earth. Drawing upon twenty-five years of professional work as an international climate change scientist and public commentator, Mike Hulme provides a unique insider's account of the emergence of this phenomenon and the diverse ways in which it is understood. He uses different standpoints from science, economics, faith, psychology, communication, sociology, politics and development to explain why we disagree about climate change. In this way he shows that climate change, far from being simply an 'issue' or a 'threat', can act as a catalyst to revise our perception of our place in the world. Why We Disagree About Climate Change is an important contribution to the ongoing debate over climate change and its likely impact on our lives.

Teaching Probability

Author: Jenny Gage,David Spiegelhalter

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 1316605892

Category: Juvenile Nonfiction

Page: 206

View: 1914

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This title focuses on the approaches that can be taken in the classroom to develop skills and a conceptual understanding of probability. Written by leading subject specialists, Teaching Probability is designed to support teaching concepts in probability by providing a new approach to this difficult subject from a perspective not limited by a syllabus, giving teachers both theoretical and practical knowledge of an innovative way of teaching probability. This alternative approach to teaching probability focuses on the methods that teachers can apply to help their students engage with the topic using experiments and mathematical models to solve problems, considering how to overcome common misconceptions and the way in which probability can be communicated.

How Change Happens

Author: Duncan Green

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 0198785399

Category: Social Science

Page: 192

View: 9465

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Human society is full of would-be "change agents," a restless mix of campaigners, lobbyists, and officials, both individuals and organizations, set on transforming the world. They want to improve public services, reform laws and regulations, guarantee human rights, get a fairer deal for those on the sharp end, achieve greater recognition for any number of issues, or simply be treated with respect. Striking then, why so many universities lack programs for social activists, to which students can turn for advice and inspiration. Instead, scholarly discussions of change are fragmented with few conversations crossing disciplinary boundaries, rarely making it onto the radar of those actively seeking change. This book bridges the gap between academia and practice, bringing together the best research from a range of academic disciplines and the evolving practical understanding of activists to explore the topic of social and political change. Drawing on many first-hand examples from the global experience of Oxfam, one of the world's largest social justice NGOs, as well as the author's insights from studying and working on international development, it tests ideas on how change happens and offers the latest thinking on what works to achieve progressive change.

Slums

The History of a Global Injustice

Author: Alan Mayne

Publisher: Reaktion Books

ISBN: 1780238878

Category: History

Page: 320

View: 630

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More than half of the world’s population now lives in urban areas, and a billion of these urban dwellers reside in neighborhoods of entrenched disadvantage—neighborhoods that are characterized as slums. Slums are often seen as a debilitating and even subversive presence within society. In reality, though, it is public policies that are often at fault, not the people who live in these neighborhoods. In this comprehensive global history, Alan Mayne explores the evolution and meaning of the word “slum,” from its origins in London in the early nineteenth century to its use as a slur against the favela communities in the lead-up to the Rio Olympics in 2016. Mayne shows how the word slum has been extensively used for two hundred years to condemn and disparage poor communities, with the result that these agendas are now indivisible from the word’s essence. He probes beyond the stereotypes of deviance, social disorganization, inertia, and degraded environments to explore the spatial coherence, collective sense of community, and effective social organization of poor and marginalized neighborhoods over the last two centuries. In mounting a case for the word’s elimination from the language of progressive urban social reform, Slums is a must-read book for all those interested in social history and the importance of the world’s vibrant and vital neighborhoods.

Mobility Without Mayhem

Safety, Cars, and Citizenship

Author: Jeremy Packer

Publisher: Duke University Press

ISBN: 9780822339632

Category: History

Page: 349

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DIVA cultural studies account of automobiles and concerns about safety in the U.S. from the 1950s to the present./div

Sunborn

Author: Jeffrey A. Carver

Publisher: Tor Books

ISBN: 9781429942195

Category: Fiction

Page: 432

View: 4665

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This ebook contains a new afterword by the author! With a plot inspired by chaos theory, fully realized characters, and plenty of twists and turns, this exciting hard SF adventure will keep readers on the edge of their seats. John Bandicut and several aliens and artificial intelligences have been thrown together by a force greater than themselves to prevent cataclysmic disasters on an interstellar scale. Now, before they can take a break after a world-saving mission, they are pulled into a waystation that is being threatened by highly destructive gravity waves. The waves are part of a much larger problem. Something is causing stars to become unstable and go prematurely nova--they're being murdered. When the waystation is destroyed by the gravity waves, Bandicut and his crew barely escape on a jury-rigged ship. Their destination is a star nursery in the Orion Nebula, where sentient stars are being driven to destruction by an artificial intelligence bent on remaking the cosmos in its own image. At the Publisher's request, this title is being sold without Digital Rights Management Software (DRM) applied.

Tremblers

Author: Raquel Byrnes

Publisher: Pelican Ventures Book Group

ISBN: 1611169747

Category: Young Adult Fiction

Page: 388

View: 1711

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Charlotte Blackburn—Beautiful, intelligent, a gifted tinkerer—lives in a cloistered world of wealth and privilege beneath the Electric Tesla Dome that shields survivors of The Great Calamity. But when her father is abducted, and a strange sickness starts transforming men into vicious monsters, she discovers that technology is no protection at all.Ashton Wells has a dire mission: Secure Colonel Blackburn and deliver his research to The Order of the Sword and Scroll. But the plan goes awry, and he is left with nothing but the colonel's daughter who has a target on her back and is willing stop at nothing to rescue her father—including handing over to the enemy the only means to stop the monstrous plague.Branded as traitors, Ashton and Charlotte brave the treacherous floating sky ports of Outer City to hunt down the elusive inventor who is the only person able to activate the strange device that harbors the secret to their salvation.With the government closing in, a rebellion brewing in the streets, and terrifying Tremblers attacking the innocent, the two must work together to stop their fragile world from crumbling once more into destruction.

Merchants of Doubt

How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming

Author: Naomi Oreskes,Erik M. Conway

Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing USA

ISBN: 1608193942

Category: Science

Page: 355

View: 7062

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"Anyone concerned about the state of democracy in America should read this book."-Al Gore

The Brief Wondrous Life of Oscar Wao

Author: Junot Daz

Publisher: Penguin

ISBN: 1594483299

Category: Fiction

Page: 339

View: 6532

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Living with an old-world mother and rebellious sister, an urban New Jersey misfit dreams of becoming the next J. R. R. Tolkien and believes that a long-standing family curse is thwarting his efforts to find love and happiness. A first novel by the author of the collection, Drown. Reprint.

Fahrenheit 451

A Novel

Author: Ray Bradbury

Publisher: Simon and Schuster

ISBN: 1451673310

Category: Fiction

Page: 159

View: 2153

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A totalitarian regime has ordered all books to be destroyed, but one of the book burners, Guy Montag, suddenly realizes their merit.