Nonlinear Time Series Analysis with R

Author: Ray Huffaker,Marco Bittelli,Rodolfo Rosa

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 0191085790

Category: Mathematics

Page: 312

View: 4531

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Nonlinear Time Series Analysis with R provides a practical guide to emerging empirical techniques allowing practitioners to diagnose whether highly fluctuating and random appearing data are most likely driven by random or deterministic dynamic forces. It joins the chorus of voices recommending 'getting to know your data' as an essential preliminary evidentiary step in modelling. Time series are often highly fluctuating with a random appearance. Observed volatility is commonly attributed to exogenous random shocks to stable real-world systems. However, breakthroughs in nonlinear dynamics raise another possibility: highly complex dynamics can emerge endogenously from astoundingly parsimonious deterministic nonlinear models. Nonlinear Time Series Analysis (NLTS) is a collection of empirical tools designed to aid practitioners detect whether stochastic or deterministic dynamics most likely drive observed complexity. Practitioners become 'data detectives' accumulating hard empirical evidence supporting their modelling approach. This book is targeted to professionals and graduate students in engineering and the biophysical and social sciences. Its major objectives are to help non-mathematicians—with limited knowledge of nonlinear dynamics—to become operational in NLTS; and in this way to pave the way for NLTS to be adopted in the conventional empirical toolbox and core coursework of the targeted disciplines. Consistent with modern trends in university instruction, the book makes readers active learners with hands-on computer experiments in R code directing them through NLTS methods and helping them understand the underlying logic. The computer code is explained in detail so that readers can adjust it for use in their own work. The book also provides readers with an explicit framework—condensed from sound empirical practices recommended in the literature—that details a step-by-step procedure for applying NLTS in real-world data diagnostics.

Nonlinear Time Series Analysis with R

Author: Ray Huffaker,Marco Bittelli,Rodolfo Rosa

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 0198782934

Category: Mathematics

Page: 312

View: 3901

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Nonlinear Time Series Analysis with R provides a practical guide to emerging empirical techniques allowing practitioners to diagnose whether highly fluctuating and random appearing data are most likely driven by random or deterministic dynamic forces. It joins the chorus of voices recommending 'getting to know your data' as an essential preliminary evidentiary step in modelling. Time series are often highly fluctuating with a random appearance. Observed volatility is commonly attributed to exogenous random shocks to stable real-world systems. However, breakthroughs in nonlinear dynamics raise another possibility: highly complex dynamics can emerge endogenously from astoundingly parsimonious deterministic nonlinear models. Nonlinear Time Series Analysis (NLTS) is a collection of empirical tools designed to aid practitioners detect whether stochastic or deterministic dynamics most likely drive observed complexity. Practitioners become 'data detectives' accumulating hard empirical evidence supporting their modelling approach. This book is targeted to professionals and graduate students in engineering and the biophysical and social sciences. Its major objectives are to help non-mathematicians--with limited knowledge of nonlinear dynamics--to become operational in NLTS; and in this way to pave the way for NLTS to be adopted in the conventional empirical toolbox and core coursework of the targeted disciplines. Consistent with modern trends in university instruction, the book makes readers active learners with hands-on computer experiments in R code directing them through NLTS methods and helping them understand the underlying logic. The computer code is explained in detail so that readers can adjust it for use in their own work. The book also provides readers with an explicit framework--condensed from sound empirical practices recommended in the literature--that details a step-by-step procedure for applying NLTS in real-world data diagnostics.

Nonlinear Time Series

Theory, Methods and Applications with R Examples

Author: Randal Douc,Eric Moulines,David Stoffer

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 1466502258

Category: Mathematics

Page: 551

View: 1285

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Designed for researchers and students, Nonlinear Times Series: Theory, Methods and Applications with R Examples familiarizes readers with the principles behind nonlinear time series models—without overwhelming them with difficult mathematical developments. By focusing on basic principles and theory, the authors give readers the background required to craft their own stochastic models, numerical methods, and software. They will also be able to assess the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches, and thus be able to choose the right methods for their purposes. The first part can be seen as a crash course on "classical" time series, with a special emphasis on linear state space models and detailed coverage of random coefficient autoregressions, both ARCH and GARCH models. The second part introduces Markov chains, discussing stability, the existence of a stationary distribution, ergodicity, limit theorems, and statistical inference. The book concludes with a self-contained account on nonlinear state space and sequential Monte Carlo methods. An elementary introduction to nonlinear state space modeling and sequential Monte Carlo, this section touches on current topics, from the theory of statistical inference to advanced computational methods. The book can be used as a support to an advanced course on these methods, or an introduction to this field before studying more specialized texts. Several chapters highlight recent developments such as explicit rate of convergence of Markov chains and sequential Monte Carlo techniques. And while the chapters are organized in a logical progression, the three parts can be studied independently. Statistics is not a spectator sport, so the book contains more than 200 exercises to challenge readers. These problems strengthen intellectual muscles strained by the introduction of new theory and go on to extend the theory in significant ways. The book helps readers hone their skills in nonlinear time series analysis and their applications.

Time Series Analysis and Its Applications

With R Examples

Author: Robert H. Shumway,David S. Stoffer

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 3319524526

Category: Mathematics

Page: 562

View: 5584

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The fourth edition of this popular graduate textbook, like its predecessors, presents a balanced and comprehensive treatment of both time and frequency domain methods with accompanying theory. Numerous examples using nontrivial data illustrate solutions to problems such as discovering natural and anthropogenic climate change, evaluating pain perception experiments using functional magnetic resonance imaging, and monitoring a nuclear test ban treaty. The book is designed as a textbook for graduate level students in the physical, biological, and social sciences and as a graduate level text in statistics. Some parts may also serve as an undergraduate introductory course. Theory and methodology are separated to allow presentations on different levels. In addition to coverage of classical methods of time series regression, ARIMA models, spectral analysis and state-space models, the text includes modern developments including categorical time series analysis, multivariate spectral methods, long memory series, nonlinear models, resampling techniques, GARCH models, ARMAX models, stochastic volatility, wavelets, and Markov chain Monte Carlo integration methods. This edition includes R code for each numerical example in addition to Appendix R, which provides a reference for the data sets and R scripts used in the text in addition to a tutorial on basic R commands and R time series. An additional file is available on the book’s website for download, making all the data sets and scripts easy to load into R.

Nonlinear Time Series Analysis

Author: Holger Kantz,Thomas Schreiber

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 9780521529020

Category: Mathematics

Page: 369

View: 7375

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New edition of a successful advanced text on nonlinear time series analysis.

Time Series Analysis

With Applications in R

Author: Jonathan D. Cryer,Kung-Sik Chan

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 038775959X

Category: Mathematics

Page: 491

View: 9449

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This book has been developed for a one-semester course usually attended by students in statistics, economics, business, engineering, and quantitative social sciences. A unique feature of this edition is its integration with the R computing environment. Basic applied statistics is assumed through multiple regression. Calculus is assumed only to the extent of minimizing sums of squares but a calculus-based introduction to statistics is necessary for a thorough understanding of some of the theory. Actual time series data drawn from various disciplines are used throughout the book to illustrate the methodology.

Nonlinear Time Series Analysis

Author: Ruey S. Tsay,Rong Chen

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1119264073

Category: Mathematics

Page: 512

View: 6605

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A comprehensive resource that draws a balance between theory and applications of nonlinear time series analysis Nonlinear Time Series Analysis offers an important guide to both parametric and nonparametric methods, nonlinear state-space models, and Bayesian as well as classical approaches to nonlinear time series analysis. The authors—noted experts in the field—explore the advantages and limitations of the nonlinear models and methods and review the improvements upon linear time series models. The need for this book is based on the recent developments in nonlinear time series analysis, statistical learning, dynamic systems and advanced computational methods. Parametric and nonparametric methods and nonlinear and non-Gaussian state space models provide a much wider range of tools for time series analysis. In addition, advances in computing and data collection have made available large data sets and high-frequency data. These new data make it not only feasible, but also necessary to take into consideration the nonlinearity embedded in most real-world time series. This vital guide: • Offers research developed by leading scholars of time series analysis • Presents R commands making it possible to reproduce all the analyses included in the text • Contains real-world examples throughout the book • Recommends exercises to test understanding of material presented • Includes an instructor solutions manual and companion website Written for students, researchers, and practitioners who are interested in exploring nonlinearity in time series, Nonlinear Time Series Analysis offers a comprehensive text that explores the advantages and limitations of the nonlinear models and methods and demonstrates the improvements upon linear time series models.

Elements of Nonlinear Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

Author: Jan G. De Gooijer

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 3319432524

Category: Mathematics

Page: 618

View: 8980

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This book provides an overview of the current state-of-the-art of nonlinear time series analysis, richly illustrated with examples, pseudocode algorithms and real-world applications. Avoiding a “theorem-proof” format, it shows concrete applications on a variety of empirical time series. The book can be used in graduate courses in nonlinear time series and at the same time also includes interesting material for more advanced readers. Though it is largely self-contained, readers require an understanding of basic linear time series concepts, Markov chains and Monte Carlo simulation methods. The book covers time-domain and frequency-domain methods for the analysis of both univariate and multivariate (vector) time series. It makes a clear distinction between parametric models on the one hand, and semi- and nonparametric models/methods on the other. This offers the reader the option of concentrating exclusively on one of these nonlinear time series analysis methods. To make the book as user friendly as possible, major supporting concepts and specialized tables are appended at the end of every chapter. In addition, each chapter concludes with a set of key terms and concepts, as well as a summary of the main findings. Lastly, the book offers numerous theoretical and empirical exercises, with answers provided by the author in an extensive solutions manual.

Basic Data Analysis for Time Series with R

Author: DeWayne R. Derryberry

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118593367

Category: Mathematics

Page: 320

View: 861

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Written at a readily accessible level, Basic Data Analysis for Time Series with R emphasizes the mathematical importance of collaborative analysis of data used to collect increments of time or space. Balancing a theoretical and practical approach to analyzing data within the context of serial correlation, the book presents a coherent and systematic regression-based approach to model selection. The book illustrates these principles of model selection and model building through the use of information criteria, cross validation, hypothesis tests, and confidence intervals. Focusing on frequency- and time-domain and trigonometric regression as the primary themes, the book also includes modern topical coverage on Fourier series and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). In addition, Basic Data Analysis for Time Series with R also features: Real-world examples to provide readers with practical hands-on experience Multiple R software subroutines employed with graphical displays Numerous exercise sets intended to support readers understanding of the core concepts Specific chapters devoted to the analysis of the Wolf sunspot number data and the Vostok ice core data sets

Time Series Analysis

Methods and Applications

Author: Tata Subba Rao,Suhasini Subba Rao,Calyampudi Radhakrishna Rao

Publisher: Elsevier

ISBN: 0444538585

Category: Mathematics

Page: 755

View: 2639

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The field of statistics not only affects all areas of scientific activity, but also many other matters such as public policy. It is branching rapidly into so many different subjects that a series of handbooks is the only way of comprehensively presenting the various aspects of statistical methodology, applications, and recent developments. The Handbook of Statistics is a series of self-contained reference books. Each volume is devoted to a particular topic in statistics, with Volume 30 dealing with time series. The series is addressed to the entire community of statisticians and scientists in various disciplines who use statistical methodology in their work. At the same time, special emphasis is placed on applications-oriented techniques, with the applied statistician in mind as the primary audience. Comprehensively presents the various aspects of statistical methodology Discusses a wide variety of diverse applications and recent developments Contributors are internationally renowened experts in their respective areas

Nonlinear Time Series

Nonparametric and Parametric Methods

Author: Jianqing Fan,Qiwei Yao

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9780387693958

Category: Mathematics

Page: 552

View: 5872

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This is the first book that integrates useful parametric and nonparametric techniques with time series modeling and prediction, the two important goals of time series analysis. Such a book will benefit researchers and practitioners in various fields such as econometricians, meteorologists, biologists, among others who wish to learn useful time series methods within a short period of time. The book also intends to serve as a reference or text book for graduate students in statistics and econometrics.

Nonlinear Regression with R

Author: Christian Ritz,Jens Carl Streibig

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 0387096167

Category: Mathematics

Page: 148

View: 2567

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- Coherent and unified treatment of nonlinear regression with R. - Example-based approach. - Wide area of application.

Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles

Author: Costas Milas,Philip Rothman,Dick van Dijk

Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing

ISBN: 044451838X

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 435

View: 8608

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The business cycle has long been the focus of empirical economic research. Until recently statistical analysis of macroeconomic fluctuations was dominated by linear time series methods. Over the past 15 years, however, economists have increasingly applied tractable parametric nonlinear time series models to business cycle data; most prominent in this set of models are the classes of Threshold AutoRegressive (TAR) models, Markov-Switching AutoRegressive (MSAR) models, and Smooth Transition AutoRegressive (STAR) models. In doing so, several important questions have been addressed in the literature, including: 1. Do out-of-sample (point, interval, density, and turning point) forecasts obtained with nonlinear time series models dominate those generated with linear models? 2. How should business cycles be dated and measured? 3. What is the response of output and employment to oil-price and monetary shocks? 4. How does monetary policy respond to asymmetries over the business cycle? 5. Are business cycles due more to permanent or to transitory negative shocks? 6. Is the business cycle asymmetric, and does it matter? Accordingly, we have compiled and edited a book for the Elsevier economics program comprising 15 original papers on these and related themes. *Contributions to Economic Analysis was established in 1952 *The series purpose is to stimulate the international exchange of scientific information *The series includes books from all areas of macroeconomics and microeconomics

Introductory Time Series with R

Author: Paul S.P. Cowpertwait,Andrew V. Metcalfe

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 0387886982

Category: Mathematics

Page: 256

View: 1437

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This book gives you a step-by-step introduction to analysing time series using the open source software R. Each time series model is motivated with practical applications, and is defined in mathematical notation. Once the model has been introduced it is used to generate synthetic data, using R code, and these generated data are then used to estimate its parameters. This sequence enhances understanding of both the time series model and the R function used to fit the model to data. Finally, the model is used to analyse observed data taken from a practical application. By using R, the whole procedure can be reproduced by the reader. All the data sets used in the book are available on the website http://staff.elena.aut.ac.nz/Paul-Cowpertwait/ts/. The book is written for undergraduate students of mathematics, economics, business and finance, geography, engineering and related disciplines, and postgraduate students who may need to analyse time series as part of their taught programme or their research.

Forecasting: principles and practice

Author: Rob J Hyndman,George Athanasopoulos

Publisher: OTexts

ISBN: 0987507117

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 380

View: 3910

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Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.

A Course in Time Series Analysis

Author: Daniel Peña,George C. Tiao,Ruey S. Tsay

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118031229

Category: Mathematics

Page: 496

View: 6872

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New statistical methods and future directions of research in time series A Course in Time Series Analysis demonstrates how to build time series models for univariate and multivariate time series data. It brings together material previously available only in the professional literature and presents a unified view of the most advanced procedures available for time series model building. The authors begin with basic concepts in univariate time series, providing an up-to-date presentation of ARIMA models, including the Kalman filter, outlier analysis, automatic methods for building ARIMA models, and signal extraction. They then move on to advanced topics, focusing on heteroscedastic models, nonlinear time series models, Bayesian time series analysis, nonparametric time series analysis, and neural networks. Multivariate time series coverage includes presentations on vector ARMA models, cointegration, and multivariate linear systems. Special features include: Contributions from eleven of the worldâ??s leading figures in time series Shared balance between theory and application Exercise series sets Many real data examples Consistent style and clear, common notation in all contributions 60 helpful graphs and tables Requiring no previous knowledge of the subject, A Course in Time Series Analysis is an important reference and a highly useful resource for researchers and practitioners in statistics, economics, business, engineering, and environmental analysis. An Instructor's Manual presenting detailed solutions to all the problems in the book is available upon request from the Wiley editorial department.

The R Book

Author: Michael J. Crawley

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118448960

Category: Mathematics

Page: 1080

View: 5064

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Hugely successful and popular text presenting an extensive and comprehensive guide for all R users The R language is recognized as one of the most powerful and flexible statistical software packages, enabling users to apply many statistical techniques that would be impossible without such software to help implement such large data sets. R has become an essential tool for understanding and carrying out research. This edition: Features full colour text and extensive graphics throughout. Introduces a clear structure with numbered section headings to help readers locate information more efficiently. Looks at the evolution of R over the past five years. Features a new chapter on Bayesian Analysis and Meta-Analysis. Presents a fully revised and updated bibliography and reference section. Is supported by an accompanying website allowing examples from the text to be run by the user. Praise for the first edition: ‘…if you are an R user or wannabe R user, this text is the one that should be on your shelf. The breadth of topics covered is unsurpassed when it comes to texts on data analysis in R.’ (The American Statistician, August 2008) ‘The High-level software language of R is setting standards in quantitative analysis. And now anybody can get to grips with it thanks to The R Book…’ (Professional Pensions, July 2007)

Analysis of Financial Time Series

Author: Ruey S. Tsay

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 0471746185

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 576

View: 6215

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Provides statistical tools and techniques needed to understand today's financial markets The Second Edition of this critically acclaimed text provides a comprehensive and systematic introduction to financial econometric models and their applications in modeling and predicting financial time series data. This latest edition continues to emphasize empirical financial data and focuses on real-world examples. Following this approach, readers will master key aspects of financial time series, including volatility modeling, neural network applications, market microstructure and high-frequency financial data, continuous-time models and Ito's Lemma, Value at Risk, multiple returns analysis, financial factor models, and econometric modeling via computation-intensive methods. The author begins with the basic characteristics of financial time series data, setting the foundation for the three main topics: Analysis and application of univariate financial time series Return series of multiple assets Bayesian inference in finance methods This new edition is a thoroughly revised and updated text, including the addition of S-Plus® commands and illustrations. Exercises have been thoroughly updated and expanded and include the most current data, providing readers with more opportunities to put the models and methods into practice. Among the new material added to the text, readers will find: Consistent covariance estimation under heteroscedasticity and serial correlation Alternative approaches to volatility modeling Financial factor models State-space models Kalman filtering Estimation of stochastic diffusion models The tools provided in this text aid readers in developing a deeper understanding of financial markets through firsthand experience in working with financial data. This is an ideal textbook for MBA students as well as a reference for researchers and professionals in business and finance.