Minding the Weather

How Expert Forecasters Think

Author: Robert R. Hoffman,Daphne S. LaDue,H. Michael Mogil,Paul J. Roebber,J. Gregory Trafton

Publisher: MIT Press

ISBN: 0262339412

Category: Science

Page: 488

View: 2381

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This book argues that the human cognition system is the least understood, yet probably most important, component of forecasting accuracy. Minding the Weather investigates how people acquire massive and highly organized knowledge and develop the reasoning skills and strategies that enable them to achieve the highest levels of performance. The authors consider such topics as the forecasting workplace; atmospheric scientists' descriptions of their reasoning strategies; the nature of expertise; forecaster knowledge, perceptual skills, and reasoning; and expert systems designed to imitate forecaster reasoning. Drawing on research in cognitive science, meteorology, and computer science, the authors argue that forecasting involves an interdependence of humans and technologies. Human expertise will always be necessary.

Integrating Social and Behavioral Sciences Within the Weather Enterprise

Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Human-Systems Integration,Board on Environmental Change and Society,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Advancing Social and Behavioral Science Research and Application Within the Weather Enterprise

Publisher: National Academies Press

ISBN: 0309464226

Category: Science

Page: 198

View: 5008

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Our ability to observe and forecast severe weather events has improved markedly over the past few decades. Forecasts of snow and ice storms, hurricanes and storm surge, extreme heat, and other severe weather events are made with greater accuracy, geographic specificity, and lead time to allow people and communities to take appropriate protective measures. Yet hazardous weather continues to cause loss of life and result in other preventable social costs. There is growing recognition that a host of social and behavioral factors affect how we prepare for, observe, predict, respond to, and are impacted by weather hazards. For example, an individual’s response to a severe weather event may depend on their understanding of the forecast, prior experience with severe weather, concerns about their other family members or property, their capacity to take the recommended protective actions, and numerous other factors. Indeed, it is these factors that can determine whether or not a potential hazard becomes an actual disaster. Thus, it is essential to bring to bear expertise in the social and behavioral sciences (SBS)â€"including disciplines such as anthropology, communication, demography, economics, geography, political science, psychology, and sociologyâ€"to understand how people’s knowledge, experiences, perceptions, and attitudes shape their responses to weather risks and to understand how human cognitive and social dynamics affect the forecast process itself. Integrating Social and Behavioral Sciences Within the Weather Enterprise explores and provides guidance on the challenges of integrating social and behavioral sciences within the weather enterprise. It assesses current SBS activities, describes the potential value of improved integration of SBS and barriers that impede this integration, develops a research agenda, and identifies infrastructural and institutional arrangements for successfully pursuing SBS-weather research and the transfer of relevant findings to operational settings.

The Cambridge Handbook of Expertise and Expert Performance

Author: K. Anders Ericsson,Robert R. Hoffman,Aaron Kozbelt,A. Mark Williams

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 1108650457

Category: Psychology

Page: N.A

View: 1336

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In this updated and expanded edition of The Cambridge Handbook of Expertise and Expert Performance, some of the world's foremost experts on expertise share their scientific knowledge of expertise and expert performance and show how experts may differ from non-experts in terms of development, training, reasoning, knowledge, and social support. The book reviews innovative methods for measuring experts' knowledge and performance in relevant tasks. Sixteen major domains of expertise are covered, including sports, music, medicine, business, writing, and drawing, with leading researchers summarizing their knowledge about the structure and acquisition of expert skills and knowledge, and discussing future prospects. General issues that cut across most domains are reviewed in chapters on various aspects of expertise, such as general and practical intelligence, differences in brain activity, self-regulated learning, deliberate practice, aging, knowledge management, and creativity.

Perspectives on Cognitive Task Analysis

Historical Origins and Modern Communities of Practice

Author: Robert R. Hoffman,Laura G. Militello

Publisher: Psychology Press

ISBN: 1136678301

Category: Psychology

Page: 500

View: 9347

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This volume is the first comprehensive history of task analysis, charting its origins from the earliest applied psychology through to modern forms of task analysis that focus on the study of cognitive work. Through this detailed historical analysis, it is made apparent how task analysis has always been cognitive. Chapters cover the histories, key ideas, and contributions to methodology of a number of communities of practice, including: Sociotechnics, European Work Analysis, Naturalistic Decision Making, Cognitive Systems Engineering, Ethnography, Human Factors. Further, integrative chapters focus on the purposes of cognitive task analysis. It is shown how all the various communities of practice are living in the same scientific universe, though are in many ways distinctive in terms of their key concerns and main theories. It is a historiography of task analysis, and the people who invented task analysis. It is also an explanatory primer on what cognitive task analysis is all about and what it can do. Perspectives on Cognitive Task Analyis will be of value to professionals in allied disciplines who might come to rely on cognitive task analysis in their system development programs. It will be invaluable to students who need to know what task analysis and cognitive task analysis are really all about. For practitioners of cognitive task analysis, this volume is a major presentation of what their scientific universe is all about.

Minding the Gaps

Integrating Poverty Reduction Strategies and Budgets for Domestic Accountability

Author: Vera Wilhelm,Philipp Krause

Publisher: World Bank Publications

ISBN: 0821372068

Category: Political Science

Page: 182

View: 8209

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By integrating their poverty reduction strategies (PRSs), national budgets, and the corresponding reporting processes, low-income countries can strengthen domestic accountability and the implementation of pro-poor policies. Minding the Gaps, based on nine low-income country case studies and a review of relevant experience in four higher-income countries, offers practical insights for donors and national governments on how to strengthen the links between PRSs and budgets. PRS countries' efforts to integrate policy with budgeting processes have often had limited effect. Their policy making, planning, and budgeting are often embedded in fragmented processes and institutions. Going beyond mainly technical fixes that have been commonly used to address this fragmentation, this study frames domestic accountability in terms of ownership and incentive structures. Experience counsels the use of a simple approach that is not too ambitious. This approach should be centrally led and make use of existing systems while gradually improving them. It should build support from within and foster incentives for integration, for example by better linking PRS and budget reporting to actual decision-making processes. Also, simple budget reforms can significantly improve the budget's responsiveness to policies. Structuring a poverty reduction strategy paper in a more budget friendly manner can facilitate the interface with the budget by involving sector agencies more closely in elaborating policy priorities and establishing resource implications. It can also expand ownership and boost incentives for integration of a great number of stakeholders, thereby strengthening domestic accountability.

The Psychology of Expertise

Cognitive Research and Empirical AI

Author: Robert R. Hoffman

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 1461397332

Category: Psychology

Page: 395

View: 7047

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Experts, who were the sole active dispensers of certain kinds of knowledge in the days before AI, have now often assumed a rather passive role. They relay their knowledge to various novices, knowledge engineers, experimental psychologists or cognitivists - or other experts! - involved in the development and understanding of expert systems. This book achieves a perfect marriage between experimentalists and theoreticians who deal with expertise. It tries to establish the benefits to society of an advanced technology for representing and disseminating the knowledge and skills of the best corporate managers, the most seasoned pilots, and the most renowned medical diagnosticians. This book interests psychologists as well as all those out in the trenches developing expert systems, and everyone pondering the nature of expertise and the question of how it can be studied scientifically. Its scope, the pivotal concepts which it elucidates and brilliantly summarizes and appraises in the final chapter, as well as the references it includes, make this book a landmark in the field.

The Imp of the Perverse

Author: Edgar Allan Poe

Publisher: Charles River Editors via PublishDrive

ISBN: 1614308853

Category: Fiction

Page: N.A

View: 7732

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Edgar Allan Poe (19 January 18097 October 1849) was an American writer best known for stories of mystery and horror.Poe also wrote poetry, including the well known poem The Raven.Not much is known about Poes untimely death, but it cannot be debated that he has had a great influence on American literature.

Working Minds

A Practitioner's Guide to Cognitive Task Analysis

Author: Beth Crandall,Gary A. Klein,Robert R. Hoffman

Publisher: MIT Press

ISBN: 0262296942

Category: Psychology

Page: 352

View: 774

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Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA) helps researchers understand how cognitive skills and strategies make it possible for people to act effectively and get things done. CTA can yield information people need -- employers faced with personnel issues, market researchers who want to understand the thought processes of consumers, trainers and others who design instructional systems, health care professionals who want to apply lessons learned from errors and accidents, systems analysts developing user specifications, and many other professionals. CTA can show what makes the workplace work -- and what keeps it from working as well as it might.Working Minds is a true handbook, offering a set of tools for doing CTA: methods for collecting data about cognitive processes and events, analyzing them, and communicating them effectively. It covers both the "why" and the "how" of CTA methods, providing examples, guidance, and stories from the authors' own experiences as CTA practitioners. Because effective use of CTA depends on some conceptual grounding in cognitive theory and research -- on knowing what a cognitive perspective can offer -- the book also offers an overview of current research on cognition.The book provides detailed guidance for planning and carrying out CTA, with chapters on capturing knowledge and capturing the way people reason. It discusses studying cognition in real-world settings and the challenges of rapidly changing technology. And it describes key issues in applying CTA findings in a variety of fields. Working Minds makes the methodology of CTA accessible and the skills involved attainable.

Interpreting Remote Sensing Imagery

Human Factors

Author: Robert R. Hoffman,Arthur B. Markman

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 9781420032819

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 304

View: 6162

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No matter how advanced the technology, there is always the human factor involved - the power behind the technology. Interpreting Remote Sensing Imagery: Human Factors draws together leading psychologists, remote sensing scientists, and government and industry scientists to consider the factors involved in expertise and perceptual skill. This book covers the cognitive issues of learning, perception, and expertise, the applied issues of display design, interface design, software design, and mental workload issues, and the practitioner's issues of workstation design, human performance, and training. It tackles the intangibles of data interpretation, based on information from experts who do the job. You will learn: Information and perception What do experts perceive in remote sensing and cartographic displays? Reasoning and perception How do experts "see through" the data display to understand its meaning and significance? Human-computer interaction How do experts work with their displays and what happens when the "fiddle" with them? Learning and training What are the milestones in training development from novice to expert image interpreter? Interpreting Remote Sensing Imagery: Human Factors breaks down the mystery of what experts do when they interpret data, how they learn, and what individual factors speed or impede training. Even more importantly, it gives you the tools to train efficiently and understand how the human factor impacts data interpretation.

Making the Most of the Anthropocene

Facing the Future

Author: Mark Denny

Publisher: JHU Press

ISBN: 1421423006

Category: Nature

Page: 224

View: 9165

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Ever since Nobel Prize–winning atmospheric chemist Paul Crutzen coined the term "Anthropocene" to describe our current era—one in which human impact on the environment has pushed Earth into an entirely new geological epoch—arguments for and against the new designation have been raging. Finally, an official working group of scientists was created to determine once and for all whether we humans have tossed one too many plastic bottles out the car window and wrought a change so profound as to be on par with the end of the last ice age. In summer 2016, the answer came back: Yes. In Making the Most of the Anthropocene, scientist Mark Denny tackles this hard truth head-on and considers burning questions: How did we reach our present technological and ecological state? How are we going to cope with our uncertain future? Will we come out of this, or are we doomed as a species? Is there anything we can do about what happens next? This book • explains what the Anthropocene is and why it is important• offers suggestions for minimizing harm instead of fretting about an impending environmental apocalypse • combines easy-to-grasp scientific, technological, economic, and anthropological analyses In Making the Most of the Anthopocene, there are no equations, no graphs, and no impenetrable jargon. Instead, you’ll find a fascinating cast of characters, including journalists from outer space, peppered moths, and unjustly maligned Polynesians. In his bright, lively voice, Denny envisions a future that balances reaction and reason, one in which humanity emerges bloody but unbowed—and in which those of us who are prepared can make the most of the Anthropocene.

Expertise in Context

Human and Machine

Author: Paul J. Feltovich,Kenneth M. Ford,Robert R. Hoffman

Publisher: Aaai Press

ISBN: 9780262561105

Category: Computers

Page: 590

View: 7258

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Computerized "expert systems" are among the best-known applications of artificial intelligence. But what is expertise? The nature of knowledge and expertise, and their relation to context, is the focus of active discussion and controversy among psychologists, philosophers, computer scientists, and other cognitive scientists. The questions reach to the very foundations of cognitive theory.The twenty-three original essay in this volume discuss the essential nature of expert knowledge, as well as such questions as how "expertise" differs from mere "knowledge," the relation between the individual and group processes involved in knowledge in general and expertise in particular, the social and other contexts of expertise, how expertise can be assessed, and the relation between human and computer expertise.Contributors : N. M. Agnew, D. Bertram, S. Bringsjord, N. Charness, W. Clancey, H. M. Collins, T. M. Converse, R. L. Coulson, D. DuBois, K. A. Ericsson, P. J. Feltovich, K. M. Ford, N. D. Geddes, K. J. Hammond, C. C. Hayes, P. J. Hayes, H. Hexmoor, C. T. Kulik, H. E. Kyburg, M. LaFrance, F. J. Lerch, G. F. Luger, M. Miller, M. Minsky, K. O'Hara, A. L. Patalano, V. L. Patel, D. Perlis, M. J. Prietula, M. F. Ramoni, A. T. Rappaport, C. M. Seifert, N. Shadbolt, V. L. Shalin, S. C. Shapiro, R. J. Spiro, E. W. Stein, C. R. Stern, R. J. Sternberg, M. A. Szczepkowski, C. M. Zeitz

The Weathermen

Their Story

Author: Gordon Tripp

Publisher: Book Guild Publishing

ISBN: 1912083892

Category: Nature

Page: 200

View: 9052

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Guide to Weather Forecasting

All the Information You'll Need to Make Your Own Weather Forecast

Author: Storm Dunlop

Publisher: Firefly Books Ltd

ISBN: N.A

Category: Nature

Page: 176

View: 2209

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Describes weather forecasting, including how different phenomena develop, how geography produces local weather patterns, and ways to make a forecast at home.

Remote Sensing and Cognition

Human Factors in Image Interpretation

Author: Raechel A. White,Arzu Coltekin,Robert R. Hoffman

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 1351040448

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 176

View: 8607

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Human factors play a critical role in the design and interpretation of remotely sensed imagery for all Earth sciences. This book will bring together current topics widely recognized and addressed regarding human cognition in geographic imagery, especially remote sensing imagery with complex data. It will address themes around expertise including methods for knowledge elicitation and modeling of expertise, the effects of different aspects of realism on the interpretation of the environment, spatial learning using imagery, the effect of visual perspective on interpretation, and a variety of technologies and methods for utilizing knowledge in the analysis of remote sensing imagery.

Risk Savvy

How to Make Good Decisions

Author: Gerd Gigerenzer

Publisher: Penguin

ISBN: 0143127101

Category: Psychology

Page: 336

View: 4529

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"First published in United States of America by Viking Penguin, a member of Penguin Group (USA) LLC, 2014."--Title page verso.

The Pure Gold Baby

Author: Margaret Drabble

Publisher: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt

ISBN: 0544158903

Category: Fiction

Page: 291

View: 6731

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Her promising career in 1960s London interrupted by an affair with a married professor that renders her a single mother, anthropology student Jessica Speight faces wrenching questions about responsibility, potential and compassion when her sunny child reveals unique needs. By the renowned author of The Sea Lady. 30,000 first printing.

Eloquent Science

A Practical Guide to Becoming a Better Writer, Speaker, and Atmospheric Scientist

Author: David Schultz

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 1935704036

Category: Science

Page: 440

View: 5158

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Mary Grace Soccio. My writing could not please this kindhearted woman, no matter how hard I tried. Although Gifed and Talented seventh-grade math posed no problem for me, the same was not true for Mrs. Soccio’s English class. I was frustrated that my frst assignment only netted me a C. I worked harder, making re- sion afer revision, a concept I had never really put much faith in before. At last, I produced an essay that seemed the apex of what I was capable of wr- ing. Although the topic of that essay is now lost to my memory, the grade I received was not: a B?. “Te best I could do was a B??” Te realization sank in that maybe I was not such a good writer. In those days, my youthful hubris did not understand abouc t apacity bui- ing. In other words, being challenged would result in my intellectual growth— an academic restatement of Nietzsche’s “What does not destroy me, makes me stronger.” Consequently, I asked to be withdrawn from Gifed and Talented English in the eighth grade.

The Zero Marginal Cost Society

The Internet of Things, the Collaborative Commons, and the Eclipse of Capitalism

Author: Jeremy Rifkin

Publisher: St. Martin's Press

ISBN: 1137437766

Category: Political Science

Page: 368

View: 8243

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In The Zero Marginal Cost Society, New York Times bestselling author Jeremy Rifkin describes how the emerging Internet of Things is speeding us to an era of nearly free goods and services, precipitating the meteoric rise of a global Collaborative Commons and the eclipse of capitalism. Rifkin uncovers a paradox at the heart of capitalism that has propelled it to greatness but is now taking it to its death—the inherent entrepreneurial dynamism of competitive markets that drives productivity up and marginal costs down, enabling businesses to reduce the price of their goods and services in order to win over consumers and market share. (Marginal cost is the cost of producing additional units of a good or service, if fixed costs are not counted.) While economists have always welcomed a reduction in marginal cost, they never anticipated the possibility of a technological revolution that might bring marginal costs to near zero, making goods and services priceless, nearly free, and abundant, and no longer subject to market forces. Now, a formidable new technology infrastructure—the Internet of things (IoT)—is emerging with the potential of pushing large segments of economic life to near zero marginal cost in the years ahead. Rifkin describes how the Communication Internet is converging with a nascent Energy Internet and Logistics Internet to create a new technology platform that connects everything and everyone. Billions of sensors are being attached to natural resources, production lines, the electricity grid, logistics networks, recycling flows, and implanted in homes, offices, stores, vehicles, and even human beings, feeding Big Data into an IoT global neural network. Prosumers can connect to the network and use Big Data, analytics, and algorithms to accelerate efficiency, dramatically increase productivity, and lower the marginal cost of producing and sharing a wide range of products and services to near zero, just like they now do with information goods. The plummeting of marginal costs is spawning a hybrid economy—part capitalist market and part Collaborative Commons—with far reaching implications for society, according to Rifkin. Hundreds of millions of people are already transferring parts of their economic lives to the global Collaborative Commons. Prosumers are plugging into the fledgling IoT and making and sharing their own information, entertainment, green energy, and 3D-printed products at near zero marginal cost. They are also sharing cars, homes, clothes and other items via social media sites, rentals, redistribution clubs, and cooperatives at low or near zero marginal cost. Students are enrolling in free massive open online courses (MOOCs) that operate at near zero marginal cost. Social entrepreneurs are even bypassing the banking establishment and using crowdfunding to finance startup businesses as well as creating alternative currencies in the fledgling sharing economy. In this new world, social capital is as important as financial capital, access trumps ownership, sustainability supersedes consumerism, cooperation ousts competition, and "exchange value" in the capitalist marketplace is increasingly replaced by "sharable value" on the Collaborative Commons. Rifkin concludes that capitalism will remain with us, albeit in an increasingly streamlined role, primarily as an aggregator of network services and solutions, allowing it to flourish as a powerful niche player in the coming era. We are, however, says Rifkin, entering a world beyond markets where we are learning how to live together in an increasingly interdependent global Collaborative Commons.

Influence (rev)

The Psychology of Persuasion

Author: Robert B. Cialdini

Publisher: Harper Collins

ISBN: 0688128165

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 320

View: 4372

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Influence, the classic book on persuasion, explains the psychology of why people say "yes"-and how to apply these understandings. Dr. Robert Cialdini is the seminal expert in the rapidly expanding field of influence and persuasion. His thirty-five years of rigorous, evidence-based research along with a three-year program of study on what moves people to change behavior has resulted in this highly acclaimed book. You'll learn the six universal principles, how to use them to become a skilled persuader-and how to defend yourself against them. Perfect for people in all walks of life, the principles of Influence will move you toward profound personal change and act as a driving force for your success.