Errors, Blunders and Lies

How to Tell the Difference

Author: David Salsburg

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 9781498795784

Category: Errors, Scientific

Page: 154

View: 6441

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We live in a world that is not quite "right." The central tenet of statistical inquiry is that Observation = Truth + Errorbecause even the most careful of scientific investigations have always been bedeviled by uncertainty. Our attempts to measure things are plagued with small errors. Our attempts to understand our world are blocked by blunders. And, unfortunately, in some cases, people have been known to lie. In this long-awaited follow-up to his well-regarded bestseller, The Lady Tasting Tea, David Salsburg opens a door to the amazing widespread use of statistical methods by looking at historical examples of errors, blunders and lies from areas as diverse as archeology, law, economics, medicine, psychology, sociology, Biblical studies, history, and war-time espionage. In doing so, he shows how, upon closer statistical investigation, errors and blunders often lead to useful information. And how statistical methods have been used to uncover falsified data. Beginning with Edmund Halley's examination of the Transit of Venus and ending with a discussion of how many tanks Rommel had during the Second World War, the author invites the reader to come along on this easily accessible and fascinating journey of how to identify the nature of errors, minimize the effects of blunders, and figure out who the liars are.

The Lady Tasting Tea

How Statistics Revolutionized Science in the Twentieth Century

Author: David Salsburg

Publisher: Macmillan

ISBN: 9780805071344

Category: Mathematics

Page: 340

View: 9981

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Examines the works of statistics pioneer Ronald Fisher as well as other revolutionary thinkers in the field, covering the rise and fall of Karl Pearson's theories, the methods that contributed to Japan's post-war rebuilding, a pivotal early study on a Guinness beer cask, and more. Reprint. 15,000 first printing.

Observation and Experiment

An Introduction to Causal Inference

Author: Paul R. Rosenbaum

Publisher: Harvard University Press

ISBN: 067497557X

Category: Mathematics

Page: 400

View: 7612

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In the face of conflicting claims about some treatments, behaviors, and policies, the question arises: What is the most scientifically rigorous way to draw conclusions about cause and effect in the study of humans? In this introduction to causal inference, Paul Rosenbaum explains key concepts and methods through real-world examples.

How Mathematicians Think

Using Ambiguity, Contradiction, and Paradox to Create Mathematics

Author: William Byers

Publisher: Princeton University Press

ISBN: 9780691145990

Category: Mathematics

Page: 424

View: 6126

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To many outsiders, mathematicians appear to think like computers, grimly grinding away with a strict formal logic and moving methodically--even algorithmically--from one black-and-white deduction to another. Yet mathematicians often describe their most important breakthroughs as creative, intuitive responses to ambiguity, contradiction, and paradox. A unique examination of this less-familiar aspect of mathematics, How Mathematicians Think reveals that mathematics is a profoundly creative activity and not just a body of formalized rules and results. Nonlogical qualities, William Byers shows, play an essential role in mathematics. Ambiguities, contradictions, and paradoxes can arise when ideas developed in different contexts come into contact. Uncertainties and conflicts do not impede but rather spur the development of mathematics. Creativity often means bringing apparently incompatible perspectives together as complementary aspects of a new, more subtle theory. The secret of mathematics is not to be found only in its logical structure. The creative dimensions of mathematical work have great implications for our notions of mathematical and scientific truth, and How Mathematicians Think provides a novel approach to many fundamental questions. Is mathematics objectively true? Is it discovered or invented? And is there such a thing as a "final" scientific theory? Ultimately, How Mathematicians Think shows that the nature of mathematical thinking can teach us a great deal about the human condition itself.

A Panorama of Statistics

Perspectives, Puzzles and Paradoxes in Statistics

Author: Eric Sowey,Peter Petocz

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1119075831

Category: Mathematics

Page: 328

View: 4020

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A Panorama of Statistics: Perspectives, Puzzles and Paradoxes in Statistics Eric Sowey, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia Peter Petocz, Department of Statistics, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia This book is a stimulating panoramic tour – quite different from a textbook journey – of the world of statistics in both its theory and practice, for teachers, students and practitioners. At each stop on the tour, the authors investigate unusual and quirky aspects of statistics, highlighting historical, biographical and philosophical dimensions of this field of knowledge. Each chapter opens with perspectives on its theme, often from several points of view. Five original and thought-provoking questions follow. These aim at widening readers’ knowledge and deepening their insight. Scattered among the questions are entertaining puzzles to solve and tantalising paradoxes to explain. Readers can compare their own statistical discoveries with the authors’ detailed answers to all the questions. The writing is lively and inviting, the ideas are rewarding, and the material is extensively cross-referenced. A Panorama of Statistics: Leads readers to discover the fascinations of statistics. Is an enjoyable companion to an undergraduate statistics textbook. Is an enriching source of knowledge for statistics teachers and practitioners. Is unique among statistics books today for its memorable content and engaging style. Lending itself equally to reading through and to dipping into, A Panorama of Statistics will surprise teachers, students and practitioners by the variety of ways in which statistics can capture and hold their interest. Reviews: "As befits the authors' statement that ‘this is not a textbook’, the structure is unusual. There are twenty-five chapters organised in five sections, each beginning with a brief perspective of a theme in statistics and finishing with five questions related to that theme. The answers provided to the questions, in section six, are as discursive and illuminating as the main body of the text. Even if you are pretty sure you know the answer, it is always worth checking what the authors have to say. Chances are that you will learn something every time. The glimpses and insights given into this enormous and far-reaching discipline succeed in being bewitching, entertaining and inviting; coverage was never the aim." "In summary, this splendid book lives up to the four ‘p-values’ of its title. It is panoramic in the scope of its survey of statistics, it is full of illuminating perspectives, it sets entertaining and challenging puzzles, and it explores fascinating paradoxes. Read it, enjoy it and learn from it." From Neil Sheldon, Teaching Statistics, volume 9, no. 2, May 2017. __________

Teaching Statistics

A Bag of Tricks

Author: Andrew Gelman,Deborah Nolan

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 0191088641

Category: Mathematics

Page: 384

View: 9290

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Students in the sciences, economics, social sciences, and medicine take an introductory statistics course. And yet statistics can be notoriously difficult for instructors to teach and for students to learn. To help overcome these challenges, Gelman and Nolan have put together this fascinating and thought-provoking book. Based on years of teaching experience the book provides a wealth of demonstrations, activities, examples, and projects that involve active student participation. Part I of the book presents a large selection of activities for introductory statistics courses and has chapters such as 'First week of class'— with exercises to break the ice and get students talking; then descriptive statistics, graphics, linear regression, data collection (sampling and experimentation), probability, inference, and statistical communication. Part II gives tips on what works and what doesn't, how to set up effective demonstrations, how to encourage students to participate in class and to work effectively in group projects. Course plans for introductory statistics, statistics for social scientists, and communication and graphics are provided. Part III presents material for more advanced courses on topics such as decision theory, Bayesian statistics, sampling, and data science.

A Statistical Guide for the Ethically Perplexed

Author: Lawrence Hubert,Howard Wainer

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 1439873690

Category: Mathematics

Page: 588

View: 6988

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For disciplines concerned with human well-being, such as medicine, psychology, and law, statistics must be used in accordance with standards for ethical practice. A Statistical Guide for the Ethically Perplexed illustrates the proper use of probabilistic and statistical reasoning in the behavioral, social, and biomedical sciences. Designed to be consulted when learning formal statistical techniques, the text describes common instances of both correct and false statistical and probabilistic reasoning. Lauded for their contributions to statistics, psychology, and psychometrics, the authors make statistical methods relevant to readers’ day-to-day lives by including real historical situations that demonstrate the role of statistics in reasoning and decision making. The historical vignettes encompass the English case of Sally Clark, breast cancer screening, risk and gambling, the Federal Rules of Evidence, "high-stakes" testing, regulatory issues in medicine, difficulties with observational studies, ethics in human experiments, health statistics, and much more. In addition to these topics, seven U.S. Supreme Court decisions reflect the influence of statistical and psychometric reasoning and interpretation/misinterpretation. Exploring the intersection of ethics and statistics, this comprehensive guide assists readers in becoming critical and ethical consumers and producers of statistical reasoning and analyses. It will help them reason correctly and use statistics in an ethical manner.

Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference

With Examples in R, SAS and ADMB

Author: Russell B. Millar

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1119977711

Category: Mathematics

Page: 384

View: 7275

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This book takes a fresh look at the popular and well-established method of maximum likelihood for statistical estimation and inference. It begins with an intuitive introduction to the concepts and background of likelihood, and moves through to the latest developments in maximum likelihood methodology, including general latent variable models and new material for the practical implementation of integrated likelihood using the free ADMB software. Fundamental issues of statistical inference are also examined, with a presentation of some of the philosophical debates underlying the choice of statistical paradigm. Key features: Provides an accessible introduction to pragmatic maximum likelihood modelling. Covers more advanced topics, including general forms of latent variable models (including non-linear and non-normal mixed-effects and state-space models) and the use of maximum likelihood variants, such as estimating equations, conditional likelihood, restricted likelihood and integrated likelihood. Adopts a practical approach, with a focus on providing the relevant tools required by researchers and practitioners who collect and analyze real data. Presents numerous examples and case studies across a wide range of applications including medicine, biology and ecology. Features applications from a range of disciplines, with implementation in R, SAS and/or ADMB. Provides all program code and software extensions on a supporting website. Confines supporting theory to the final chapters to maintain a readable and pragmatic focus of the preceding chapters. This book is not just an accessible and practical text about maximum likelihood, it is a comprehensive guide to modern maximum likelihood estimation and inference. It will be of interest to readers of all levels, from novice to expert. It will be of great benefit to researchers, and to students of statistics from senior undergraduate to graduate level. For use as a course text, exercises are provided at the end of each chapter.

Terrorism Informatics

Knowledge Management and Data Mining for Homeland Security

Author: Hsinchun Chen,Edna Reid,Joshua Sinai,Andrew Silke,Boaz Ganor

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 0387716130

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 558

View: 5053

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This book is nothing less than a complete and comprehensive survey of the state-of-the-art of terrorism informatics. It covers the application of advanced methodologies and information fusion and analysis. It also lays out techniques to acquire, integrate, process, analyze, and manage the diversity of terrorism-related information for international and homeland security-related applications. The book details three major areas of terrorism research: prevention, detection, and established governmental responses to terrorism. It systematically examines the current and ongoing research, including recent case studies and application of terrorism informatics techniques. The coverage then presents the critical and relevant social/technical areas to terrorism research including social, privacy, data confidentiality, and legal challenges.

A Course in Mathematical Statistics and Large Sample Theory

Author: Rabi Bhattacharya,Lizhen Lin,Victor Patrangenaru

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 1493940325

Category: Mathematics

Page: 389

View: 2037

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This graduate-level textbook is primarily aimed at graduate students of statistics, mathematics, science, and engineering who have had an undergraduate course in statistics, an upper division course in analysis, and some acquaintance with measure theoretic probability. It provides a rigorous presentation of the core of mathematical statistics. Part I of this book constitutes a one-semester course on basic parametric mathematical statistics. Part II deals with the large sample theory of statistics - parametric and nonparametric, and its contents may be covered in one semester as well. Part III provides brief accounts of a number of topics of current interest for practitioners and other disciplines whose work involves statistical methods.

Visualizing Baseball

Author: Jim Albert

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 1351370227

Category: Mathematics

Page: 142

View: 7716

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Visualizing Baseball provides a visual exploration of the game of baseball. Graphical displays are used to show how measures of performance, at the team level and the individual level, have changed over the history of baseball. Graphs of career trajectories are helpful for understanding the rise and fall of individual performances of hitters and pitchers over time. One can measure the contribution of plays by the notion of runs expectancy. Graphs of runs expectancy are useful for understanding the importance of the game situation defined by the runners on base and number of outs. Also the runs measure can be used to quantify hitter and pitch counts and the win probabilities can be used to define the exciting plays during a baseball game. Special graphs are used to describe pitch data from the PitchFX system and batted ball data from the Statcast system. One can explore patterns of streaky performance and clutch play by the use of graphs, and special plots are used to predict final season batting averages based on data from the middle of the season. This book was written for several types of readers. Many baseball fans should be interested in the topics of the chapters, especially those who are interested in learning more about the quantitative side of baseball. Many statistical ideas are illustrated and so the graphs and accompanying insights can help in promoting statistical literacy at many levels. From a practitioner’s perspective, the chapters offer many illustrations of the use of a modern graphics system and R scripts are available on an accompanying website to reproduce and potentially improve the graphs in this book.

An Accidental Statistician

The Life and Memories of George E. P. Box

Author: George E. P. Box

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118514939

Category: Biography & Autobiography

Page: 304

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Celebrating the life of an admired pioneer in statistics In this captivating and inspiring memoir, world-renowned statistician George E. P. Box offers a firsthand account of his life and statistical work. Writing in an engaging, charming style, Dr. Box reveals the unlikely events that led him to a career in statistics, beginning with his job as a chemist conducting experiments for the British army during World War II. At this turning point in his life and career, Dr. Box taught himself the statistical methods necessary to analyze his own findings when there were no statisticians available to check his work. Throughout his autobiography, Dr. Box expertly weaves a personal and professional narrative to illustrate the effects his work had on his life and vice-versa. Interwoven between his research with time series analysis, experimental design, and the quality movement, Dr. Box recounts coming to the United States, his family life, and stories of the people who mean the most to him. This fascinating account balances the influence of both personal and professional relationships to demonstrate the extraordinary life of one of the greatest and most influential statisticians of our time. An Accidental Statistician also features: • Two forewords written by Dr. Box’s former colleagues and closest confidants • Personal insights from more than a dozen statisticians on how Dr. Box has influenced and continues to touch their careers and lives • Numerous, previously unpublished photos from the author’s personal collection An Accidental Statistician is a compelling read for statisticians in education or industry, mathematicians, engineers, and anyone interested in the life story of an influential intellectual who altered the world of modern statistics.

Noninferiority Testing in Clinical Trials

Issues and Challenges

Author: Tie-Hua Ng

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 1466561491

Category: Mathematics

Page: 208

View: 8649

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Take Your NI Trial to the Next Level Reflecting the vast research on noninferiority (NI) designs from the past 15 years, Noninferiority Testing in Clinical Trials: Issues and Challenges explains how to choose the NI margin as a small fraction of the therapeutic effect of the active control in a clinical trial. Requiring no prior knowledge of NI testing, the book is easily accessible to both statisticians and nonstatisticians involved in drug development. With over 20 years of experience in this area, the author introduces the basic elements of the NI trials one at a time in a logical order. He discusses issues with estimating the effect size based on historical placebo control trials of the active control. The book covers fundamental concepts related to NI trials, such as assay sensitivity, constancy assumption, discounting, and preservation. It also describes patient populations, three-arm trials, and the equivalence of three or more groups.

Financial Analytics with R

Author: Mark J. Bennett,Dirk L. Hugen

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 1107150752

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 390

View: 8674

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Financial Analytics with R sharpens readers' skills in time-series, forecasting, portfolio selection, covariance clustering, prediction, and derivative securities.

From Election to Coup in Fiji

The 2006 Campaign and Its Aftermath

Author: Jonathan Fraenkel,Stewart Firth

Publisher: ANU E Press

ISBN: 1921313366

Category: Political Science

Page: 483

View: 443

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Provides an analysis of the lead-up to, the outcome, and the aftermath of Fiji's historic 2006 election - including the December coup. Contributions from ex-Vice President Ratu Joni Madraiwiwi; ousted Prime Minister Laisenia Qarase; interim Minister for Finance Mahendra Chaudhry; and an array of leading commentators.

Principles of Medical Statistics

Author: Alvan R. Feinstein

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 1420035681

Category: Mathematics

Page: 712

View: 1029

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The get-it-over-with-quickly approach to statistics has been encouraged - and often necessitated - by the short time allotted to it in most curriculums. If included at all, statistics is presented briefly, as a task to be endured mainly because pertinent questions may appear in subsequent examinations for licensure or other certifications. However, in later professional activities, clinicians and biomedical researchers will constantly be confronted with reports containing statistical expressions and analyses. Not just a set of cookbook recipes, Principles of Medical Statistics is designed to get you thinking about data and statistical procedures. It covers many new statistical methods and approaches like box plots, stem and leaf plots, concepts of stability, the bootstrap, and the jackknife methods of resampling. The book is arranged in a logical sequence that advances from simple to more elaborate results. The text describes all the conventional statistical procedures, and offers reasonably rigorous accounts of many of their mathematical justifications. Although the conventional mathematical principles are given a respectful account, the book provides a distinctly clinical orientation with examples and teaching exercises drawn from real world medical phenomena. Statistical procedures are an integral part of the basic background needed by biomedical researchers, students, and clinicians. Containing much more than most elementary texts, Principles of Medical Statistics fills the gap often found in the current curriculum. It repairs the imbalance that gives so little attention to the role of statistics as a prime component of basic biomedical education.

Cognitive Computing and Information Processing

Third International Conference, CCIP 2017, Bengaluru, India, December 15-16, 2017, Revised Selected Papers

Author: T.N. Nagabhushan,V. N. Manjunath Aradhya,Prabhudev Jagadeesh,Seema Shukla,Chayadevi M.L.

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 9811090599

Category: Computers

Page: 502

View: 2845

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This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the Third International Conference on Cognitive Computing and Information Processing, CCIP 2017, held in Bengaluru, India, in December 2017. The 43 revised full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 130 submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on cognitive computing in medical information processing; cognitive computing and its applications; cognitive computing in video analytics.

Monte-Carlo Methods and Stochastic Processes

From Linear to Non-Linear

Author: Emmanuel Gobet

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 149874625X

Category: Mathematics

Page: 336

View: 2652

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Developed from the author’s course at the Ecole Polytechnique, Monte-Carlo Methods and Stochastic Processes: From Linear to Non-Linear focuses on the simulation of stochastic processes in continuous time and their link with partial differential equations (PDEs). It covers linear and nonlinear problems in biology, finance, geophysics, mechanics, chemistry, and other application areas. The text also thoroughly develops the problem of numerical integration and computation of expectation by the Monte-Carlo method. The book begins with a history of Monte-Carlo methods and an overview of three typical Monte-Carlo problems: numerical integration and computation of expectation, simulation of complex distributions, and stochastic optimization. The remainder of the text is organized in three parts of progressive difficulty. The first part presents basic tools for stochastic simulation and analysis of algorithm convergence. The second part describes Monte-Carlo methods for the simulation of stochastic differential equations. The final part discusses the simulation of non-linear dynamics.